Research Note: COVID-19 Is Not an Independent Cause of Death.

The COVID-19 pandemic has had overwhelming global impacts with deleterious social, economic, and health consequences. To assess the COVID-19 death toll, researchers have estimated declines in 2020 life expectancy at birth (e0). When data are available only for COVID-19 deaths, but not for deaths from other causes, the risks of dying from COVID-19 are typically assumed to be independent of those from other causes. In this research note, we explore the soundness of this assumption using data from the United States and Brazil, the countries with the largest number of reported COVID-19 deaths. We use three methods: one estimates the difference between 2019 and 2020 life tables and therefore does not require the assumption of independence, and the other two assume independence to simulate scenarios in which COVID-19 mortality is added to 2019 death rates or is eliminated from 2020 rates. Our results reveal that COVID-19 is not independent of other causes of death. The assumption of independence can lead to either an overestimate (Brazil) or an underestimate (United States) of the decline in e0, depending on how the number of other reported causes of death changed in 2020.

Early Response to COVID-19 in Brazil: The Impact of a Targeted Approach to Suspected Cases and on Epidemiologic Surveillance Efforts

Background SARS-CoV-2 entered Brazil before travel restrictions and border closures were imposed. This study reports characteristics of suspected and confirmed COVID-19 cases among symptomatic international travelers in Brazil and their contacts. Methods We analyzed the REDCap platform developed by the Brazilian Ministry of Health to notify and investigate suspect cases of COVID-19 from January 1 to March 20, 2020. We analyzed the impact of Brazil's targeted approach to suspected cases from specific countries on epidemiologic surveillance efforts during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results Based on molecular RT-PCR tests, there were 217 (4.2%) confirmed, 1,030 (20.1%) unconfirmed, 722 (14.1%) suspected, and 3,157 (61.6%) non-investigated cases among travelers returning from countries included in the alert list for surveillance, as defined by the Ministry of Health. Among those who traveled to countries not included in the alert list (n=3,372), there were 66 (2.0%) confirmed, 845 (25.3%) unconfirmed, 521 (15.6%) suspected, and 1,914 (57.2%) non-investigated cases. A comparison of the characteristics of confirmed cases returning from alert and non-alert countries did not reveal a statistically significant difference in symptoms. Almost half of the hospitalized travelers with known travel dates and hospitalization status (53.6%) were inbound from countries not included in the alert list and RT-PCR tests were reported for only 30.5%. Conclusions Policies adopted at entry points to contain the introduction of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil were not ideal. An analysis of the early response shows that surveillance of travelers, including testing strategies, data standards, and reporting systems, was insufficient.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in Latin America, 2021: a multicenter regional case-control study.

Background: As of September 2022, nearly 1.3 billion doses of COVID-19 vaccine products have been administered in Latin America and the Caribbean, where 27% of global COVID-19 deaths have occurred. This study aimed to estimate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against lab-confirmed COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths among adults in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Colombia. Methods: Using a test-negative case control design, we evaluated the effectiveness of a primary vaccination series considering six COVID-19 vaccine products (Sputnik V, mRNA-1273, CoronaVac, ChAdOx1, BNT162b2, Ad26.COV2.S) against lab-confirmed COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths among 83,708 hospitalized adults from February-December, 2021. Data from hospitalization records, COVID surveillance, and vaccination registries were used. Vaccine effectiveness was estimated using logistic regression ((1-OR) x 100). Findings: The average age of participants was 56.7 (SD = 17.5), and 45,894 (54.8%) were male. Adjusted VE (aVE) estimates for full vaccination against hospitalization were 82% for mRNA-1273 (95% confidence interval (CI) = -30 to 98%), 76% (71%-81%) for BNT162b2, 65% (61-68%) for ChAdOx1, 57% (10-79%) for Sputnik V, 53% (50-56%) for CoronaVac, and 46% (23-62%) for Ad26.COV2.S. Estimates, particularly for CoronaVac, varied by variant. Decreasing aVE was estimated as age increased, particularly for CoronaVac and ChAdOx1. aVE estimates against death were generally higher, with 100% (CI not estimated) for mRNA-1273, 82% (69-90%) for BNT162b2, 73% (69-77%) for ChAdOx1, 65% (60-67%) for CoronaVac, 38% (-75 to 78%) for Sputnik V, 6% (-58 to 44%) for Ad26.COV2.S. Interpretation: Primary series vaccination with available COVID-19 vaccine products was effective against COVID-19 hospitalization and mortality. Effectiveness varied by product and declined with increasing age. Funding: This study was funded by the Pan-American Health Organization (PAHO, World Health Organization (WHO)). PAHO convened and led the study implementation.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal mental health, early childhood development, and parental practices: a global scoping review.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO), generating stark economic and social repercussions that directly or indirectly affected families' wellbeing and health status. AIMS: This review aims at mapping the existing evidence on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal mental health, early childhood development, and parental practices, worldwide, to identify evidence gaps and better inform future delivery of care and health policy measures. METHODS: Following the protocol defined by PRISMA-ScR, this scoping review has searched for relevant studies published between January 2020 and June 2021, selecting evidence sources based on pre-established criteria. From a total of 2,308 articles, data were extracted from 537 publications from 35 countries on all three health domains. RESULTS: The combined stressors brought forth by the pandemic have exerted a heavy burden on the mental health of mothers and the development of young children, partly mediated by its impact on parental practices. CONCLUSIONS: Despite remaining gaps, we have identified sufficient evidence pointing to an urgent need for more concerted global research efforts and rapid policy responses to timely address severe and pervasive negative impacts to the mental health of mothers and children at a key developmental stage.

Food insecurity among families with infants born during the COVID-19 pandemic in Fortaleza, Northeast Brazil.

PURPOSE: To assess the prevalence of food insecurity (FI) among families with infants born during the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated factors in Fortaleza, the fifth largest city in Brazil. METHODS: Data from two survey rounds of the Iracema-COVID cohort study collected at 12 (n = 325) and 18 months (n = 331) after birth. FI was measured using the Brazilian Household Food Insecurity Scale. FI levels were described according to potential predictors. Crude and adjusted logistic regressions with robust variance were used to assess factors associated with FI. RESULTS: In the 12- and 18-month follow-ups interviews, there was a 66.5% and 57.1% prevalence of FI, respectively. Over the study period, 3.5% of the families persisted in severe FI and 27.4% in mild/moderate FI. Households headed by mothers, with more children, low education and income, sustained maternal common mental disorders, and that were beneficiaries of cash transfer programs were the most affected by persistent FI. CONCLUSIONS: Although the prevalence of FI decreased in our sample, almost 60% of families in Fortaleza still have no regular access to enough and/or nutritionally appropriate food. We have identified the groups at higher FI risk, which can guide governmental policies.

Health systems resilience: is it time to revisit resilience after COVID-19?

The concept of health system resilience has been challenged by the COVID-19 pandemic. Even well-established health systems, considered resilient, collapsed during the pandemic. To revisit the concept of resilience two years and a half after the initial impact of COVID-19, we conducted a qualitative study with 26 international experts in health systems to explore their views on concepts, stages, analytical frameworks, and implementation from a comparative perspective of high- and low-and-middle-income countries (HICs and LMICs). The interview guide was informed by a comprehensive literature review, and all interviewees had practice and academic expertise in some of the largest health systems in the world. Results show that the pandemic did modify experts' views on various aspects of health system resilience, which we summarize and propose as refinements to the current understanding of health systems resilience.

Deaths Related to Chagas Disease and COVID-19 Co-Infection, Brazil, March-December 2020.

We analyzed epidemiologic characteristics and distribution of 492 deaths related to Chagas disease and coronavirus disease (COVID-19) co-infection in Brazil during March‒December 2020. Cumulative co-infected death rates were highest among advanced age groups, persons of Afro-Brazilian ethnicity and with low education levels, and geographically distributed mainly in major Chagas disease‒endemic areas.

SARS-CoV-2 antibody dynamics in blood donors and COVID-19 epidemiology in eight Brazilian state capitals: A serial cross-sectional study.

Background: The COVID-19 situation in Brazil is complex due to large differences in the shape and size of regional epidemics. Understanding these patterns is crucial to understand future outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 or other respiratory pathogens in the country. Methods: We tested 97,950 blood donation samples for IgG antibodies from March 2020 to March 2021 in 8 of Brazil's most populous cities. Residential postal codes were used to obtain representative samples. Weekly age- and sex-specific seroprevalence were estimated by correcting the crude seroprevalence by test sensitivity, specificity, and antibody waning. Results: The inferred attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in December 2020, before the Gamma variant of concern (VOC) was dominant, ranged from 19.3% (95% credible interval [CrI] 17.5-21.2%) in Curitiba to 75.0% (95% CrI 70.8-80.3%) in Manaus. Seroprevalence was consistently smaller in women and donors older than 55 years. The age-specific infection fatality rate (IFR) differed between cities and consistently increased with age. The infection hospitalisation rate increased significantly during the Gamma-dominated second wave in Manaus, suggesting increased morbidity of the Gamma VOC compared to previous variants circulating in Manaus. The higher disease penetrance associated with the health system's collapse increased the overall IFR by a minimum factor of 2.91 (95% CrI 2.43-3.53). Conclusions: These results highlight the utility of blood donor serosurveillance to track epidemic maturity and demonstrate demographic and spatial heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 spread. Funding: This work was supported by Itaú Unibanco 'Todos pela Saude' program; FAPESP (grants 18/14389-0, 2019/21585-0); Wellcome Trust and Royal Society Sir Henry Dale Fellowship 204311/Z/16/Z; the Gates Foundation (INV- 034540 and INV-034652); REDS-IV-P (grant HHSN268201100007I); the UK Medical Research Council (MR/S0195/1, MR/V038109/1); CAPES; CNPq (304714/2018-6); Fundação Faculdade de Medicina; Programa Inova Fiocruz-CE/Funcap - Edital 01/2020 Number: FIO-0167-00065.01.00/20 SPU N°06531047/2020; JBS - Fazer o bem faz bem.

Predicting SARS-CoV-2 Variant Spread in a Completely Seropositive Population Using Semi-Quantitative Antibody Measurements in Blood Donors.

SARS-CoV-2 serologic surveys estimate the proportion of the population with antibodies against historical variants, which nears 100% in many settings. New approaches are required to fully exploit serosurvey data. Using a SARS-CoV-2 anti-Spike (S) protein chemiluminescent microparticle assay, we attained a semi-quantitative measurement of population IgG titers in serial cross-sectional monthly samples of blood donations across seven Brazilian state capitals (March 2021-November 2021). Using an ecological analysis, we assessed the contributions of prior attack rate and vaccination to antibody titer. We compared anti-S titer across the seven cities during the growth phase of the Delta variant and used this to predict the resulting age-standardized incidence of severe COVID-19 cases. We tested ~780 samples per month, per location. Seroprevalence rose to >95% across all seven capitals by November 2021. Driven by vaccination, mean antibody titer increased 16-fold over the study, with the greatest increases occurring in cities with the highest prior attack rates. Mean anti-S IgG was strongly correlated (adjusted R2 = 0.89) with the number of severe cases caused by Delta. Semi-quantitative anti-S antibody titers are informative about prior exposure and vaccination coverage and may also indicate the potential impact of future SARS-CoV-2 variants.

SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and COVID-19 among 5 years-old Amazonian children and their association with poverty and food insecurity.

BACKGROUND: The epidemiology of childhood SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related illness remains little studied in high-transmission tropical settings, partly due to the less severe clinical manifestations typically developed by children and the limited availability of diagnostic tests. To address this knowledge gap, we investigate the prevalence and predictors of SARS-CoV-2 infection (either symptomatic or not) and disease in 5 years-old Amazonian children. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We retrospectively estimated SARS-CoV-2 attack rates and the proportion of infections leading to COVID-19-related illness among 660 participants in a population-based birth cohort study in the Juruá Valley, Amazonian Brazil. Children were physically examined, tested for SARS-CoV-2 IgG and IgM antibodies, and had a comprehensive health questionnaire administered during a follow-up visit at the age of 5 years carried out in January or June-July 2021. We found serological evidence of past SARS-CoV-2 infection in 297 (45.0%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 41.2-48.9%) of 660 cohort participants, but only 15 (5.1%; 95% CI, 2.9-8.2%) seropositive children had a prior medical diagnosis of COVID-19 reported by their mothers or guardians. The period prevalence of clinically apparent COVID-19, defined as the presence of specific antibodies plus one or more clinical symptoms suggestive of COVID-19 (cough, shortness of breath, and loss of taste or smell) reported by their mothers or guardians since the pandemic onset, was estimated at 7.3% (95% CI, 5.4-9.5%). Importantly, children from the poorest households and those with less educated mothers were significantly more likely to be seropositive, after controlling for potential confounders by mixed-effects multiple Poisson regression analysis. Likewise, the period prevalence of COVID-19 was 1.8-fold (95%, CI 1.2-2.6-fold) higher among cohort participants exposed to food insecurity and 3.0-fold (95% CI, 2.8-3.5-fold) higher among those born to non-White mothers. Finally, children exposed to household and family contacts who had COVID-19 were at an increased risk of being SARS-CoV-2 seropositive and-even more markedly-of having had clinically apparent COVID-19 by the age of 5 years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Childhood SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-associated illness are substantially underdiagnosed and underreported in the Amazon. Children in the most socioeconomically vulnerable households are disproportionately affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease.

Breastfeeding Practices Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Fortaleza, Northeastern Brazil.

BACKGROUND: Physical distancing associated with the COVID-19 pandemic may lead to suboptimal maternal mental health, social support after birth, and infant feeding practices. RESEARCH AIMS: To compare breastfeeding prevalence in participants who were pregnant at a time when strict physical distancing measures were imposed in Fortaleza, the capital of Ceará state, Brazil, with the pre-pandemic breastfeeding levels, and to assess the association of breastfeeding prevalence with maternal common mental disorders, and sociodemographic and health predictors. METHOD: A cross-sectional prospective two-group comparison design using two population-based surveys was carried out in Fortaleza before and after the pandemic. Participants (n = 351) who had a live birth in Fortaleza in July or August 2020, and participants (n = 222) who had a child younger than 12 months in 2017 were surveyed. Crude and adjusted multinomial logistic regressions with robust variance were used to estimate risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Similar prevalence of exclusive breastfeeding were observed in 2021 (8.1%) and 2017 (8.5%; p = .790). An increase in predominant (2.2% vs. 13.4%; p < .001) and a decrease in complementary breastfeeding (64.0% vs. 48.4%; p = .037) was observed in 2021, compared to 2017. The prevalence of maternal common mental disorders also increased in 2021 (17.6% vs. 32.5%, p < .001). No statistically significant associations were found between breastfeeding patterns, maternal common mental disorders, and other predictors in 2017 or 2021. CONCLUSIONS: Participants who delivered during the COVID-19 pandemic delayed solid foods introduction and breastfed predominantly longer than participants during the pre-pandemic period. While common mental disorders significantly increased, they were not associated with differences in breastfeeding.

Cohort profile: maternal and child health and parenting practices during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ceará, Brazil: birth cohort study (Iracema-COVID).

PURPOSE: Maternal and child health and parenting practices during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ceará (Iracema-COVID) is a longitudinal, prospective population-based birth cohort designed to understand the effects of the pandemic and social withdrawal in maternal mental health, child development and parenting practices of mothers and families. PARTICIPANTS: A sample of mothers who gave birth in July and August 2020 (n=351) was enrolled in the study in January 2021. Interviews were conducted by telephone. Data were collected through standardised questionnaires that, in addition to sociodemographic and economic data, collected information on breast feeding, mental health status and COVID-19. FINDINGS TO DATE: Results from the first wave show that the majority of participants have 9-11 years of schooling (54.4%; 95% CI 61.0 to 70.9) and are of mixed race (71.5%; 95% CI 66.5 to 76.0). At the time of the survey, 27.9% of the participants were out of the labor force (95% CI 23.5 to 32.9) and 78.6% reported a decrease in family income after restrictions imposed due to the pandemic (95% CI 74.0 to 82.6). The prevalence of maternal common mental disorder symptoms was 32.5% (95% CI 27.8 to 37.6). FUTURE PLANS: Follow-up visits are planned to occur every 6 months for the next five years (2021-2025). Additional topics will be included in future waves (eg, food insecurity and parenting practices). Communication strategies for bonding, such as picture cards, pictures of mothers with their children and phone calls to the participants, will be used to minimise attrition. Results of this prospective cohort will generate novel knowledge on the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child health and parenting practices in a population of women and children living in fifth largest city of Brazil.

Spatial and temporal fluctuations in COVID-19 fatality rates in Brazilian hospitals.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant of concern has spread rapidly across Brazil since late 2020, causing substantial infection and death waves. Here we used individual-level patient records after hospitalization with suspected or confirmed coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) between 20 January 2020 and 26 July 2021 to document temporary, sweeping shocks in hospital fatality rates that followed the spread of Gamma across 14 state capitals, during which typically more than half of hospitalized patients aged 70 years and older died. We show that such extensive shocks in COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates also existed before the detection of Gamma. Using a Bayesian fatality rate model, we found that the geographic and temporal fluctuations in Brazil's COVID-19 in-hospital fatality rates were primarily associated with geographic inequities and shortages in healthcare capacity. We estimate that approximately half of the COVID-19 deaths in hospitals in the 14 cities could have been avoided without pre-pandemic geographic inequities and without pandemic healthcare pressure. Our results suggest that investments in healthcare resources, healthcare optimization and pandemic preparedness are critical to minimize population-wide mortality and morbidity caused by highly transmissible and deadly pathogens such as SARS-CoV-2, especially in low- and middle-income countries.

COVID-19 and mental health of pregnant women in Ceará, Brazil.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the perceptions of pregnant women about COVID-19 and the prevalence of common mental disorders during the implemented social distancing period. METHODS: This was an observational, cross-sectional study using digital media, of pregnant women exposed to social distancing due to the COVID-19 pandemic, in Fortaleza, Ceará, Northeastern Brazil. Common mental disorders were estimated using the modified Self-Report Questionnaire-20 (SRQ-20) scale, and the feelings towards COVID-19 were assessed using the Fear of COVID-19 scale through telephone calls made in May 2020. COX multivariate regression models were used to verify the associations. RESULTS: Of the 1,041 pregnant women, 45.7% (95%CI: 42.7-48.8) had common mental disorders (CMD). All items of the Fear of COVID-19 Scale showed a significant association with the prevalence of CMD (p < 0.001). A CMD risk gradient was observed, going from a prevalence ratio of 1.52 (95%CI: 1.13-2.04) in pregnant women with two positive items to 2.70 (95%CI: 2.08-3.51) for those with four positive items. Early gestational age and the lack of prenatal care were also associated with CMD. CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of common mental disorders in pregnant women was high during the period of social distancing and was aggravated by negative feelings towards COVID-19.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 after Emergence of SARS-CoV-2 Gamma Variant, Brazilian Amazon, 2020-2021.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Gamma variant has been hypothesized to cause more severe illness than previous variants, especially in children. Successive SARS-CoV-2 IgG serosurveys in the Brazilian Amazon showed that age-specific attack rates and proportions of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections were similar before and after Gamma variant emergence.

Cohort profile: the Mâncio Lima cohort study of urban malaria in Amazonian Brazil.

PURPOSE: This population-based open cohort study aims to investigate biological and sociodemographic drivers of malaria transmission in the main urban hotspot of Amazonian Brazil. PARTICIPANTS: Nearly 20% of the households in the northwestern town of Mâncio Lima were randomly selected and 2690 participants were enrolled since April 2018. Sociodemographic, housing quality, occupational, behavioural and morbidity information and travel histories were collected during consecutive study visits. Blood samples from participants>3 months old were used for malaria diagnosis and human genetic studies; samples from participants with laboratory-confirmed malaria have been cryopreserved for genetic and phenotypic characterisation of parasites. Serology was introduced in 2020 to measure the prevalence and longevity of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. FINDINGS TO DATE: Malaria prevalence rates were low (up to 1.0% for Plasmodium vivax and 0.6% for P. falciparum) during five consecutive cross-sectional surveys between April-May 2018 and October-November 2020; 63% of infections diagnosed by microscopy were asymptomatic. Malaria risk is heterogeneously distributed, with 20% study participants contributing 86% of the overall burden of P. vivax infection. Adult males are at greatest risk of infection and human mobility across the urban-rural interface may contribute to sustained malaria transmission. Local P. vivax parasites are genetically diverse and fragmented into discrete inbred lineages that remain stable across space and time. FUTURE PLANS: Two follow-up visits, with similar study protocols, are planned in 2021. We aim to identify high-risk individuals that fuel onwards malaria transmission and represent a priority target for more intensive and effective control interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT03689036.